
Whether it's presidential politics, the Minnesota Senate race, or Division III basketball, it's wise to be skeptical of polls. Especially in October.
Steve Fritz is a no-nonsense coach not known for hype and spin. So he was chuckling Tuesday when he received his own October surprise. He learned that his St. Thomas men's basketball team was ranked No. 1 in Division III in a preseason poll by the Sporting News Magazine.
Last year's national champion, Washington (Mo.), which returns four starters and 14 players, was picked second. Huh?
Five of the next six spots went to Midwest teams from Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin, including Buena Vista, which beat the Tommies 72-70 last March in the NCAA playoffs.
St. Thomas perhaps warrants a ranking in the high teens of a top-25 preseason poll. The Tommies return their top 10 scorers from a 23-5 team that swept the MIAC regular-season and playoff titles for the third year in a row. Joe Scott and Tyler Nicolai are exceptional shooters. B.J. Viau is a strong rebounder and defender and averaged 18 ppg over the last four games. Fifth-year senior Lonnie Robinson brings a magic touch. Lonnie, an All-American pitcher, has been a part of 13 conference championship teams -- regular-season and playoff -- in basketball and baseball. Senior Al McCoy, the conference's Sixth Player of the Year, and junior David Baker share duties at center. UST was 11-0 last season when McCoy scored eight or more points and 18-0 when Nicolai scored seven or more points. The Tommie bench scored 31 ppg last season, double the previous year's average.
UST also hopes one year of experience will help it win more close games in 2008-09. Last season the Toms were 3-3 in games decided in overtime or by two or less points -- and 20-2 in all other contests.
Plus, there's a secret weapon among Fritz' new players: We found another year of eligibility for Carrie Embree. Hallelujah. The John Tschida factor comes into play.
OK, back to reality. Carrie Embree already turned pro in softball.
The actual Tommie recruiting class might indeed have a sleeper or two. The newcomers might include three standout football players. Backup QB Greg Morse of St. Paul Como Park brings talent in his 6-5 frame. Guards Fritz Waldvogel of St. Thomas Academy (WR starter) and Brady Ervin of Eden Prairie (DB and ex-Iowa State football walk-on) have played big roles in St. Thomas' 3-1 start. Another freshman who could help is Peter Leslie of Henry Sibley, the brother of Tommie All-MIAC baseball player Dan Leslie.
Certainly, St. Thomas' reputation soared when it posted a November 2007 overtime win at Winona State. That upset looked even better when Winona finished 38-1 last season with its second Division II national title in three years. The Warriors are a remarkable 92-2 since January 2006.
When the UST sports information director speculated that the Winona State upset played a big role in the Sporting News poll, Fritz laughed and said: "Then make us No. 1 in the Division II poll -- just don't rank us No. 1 in Division III."
Hey, Steve, let's not stop there -- how about a case for UST being No. 1 in Division I? It might be 25 years until a Tommie publicist can offer such an outrageous argument, but here goes: Last season, the Tommies beat D-II champion Winona State... which beat Grand Valley State... which posted an exhibition win over Michigan State... which beat Missouri... which beat Kansas State... which was the last team to beat NCAA champion Kansas. So the D-I national championship banner goes up this week at Schoenecker.
OK, back to reality again. Garth and Wayne probably had it right in "Wayne's World." Maybe we're not worthy.
PHOTO: Below right, B.J. Viau
Basketball Times will soon release its Division III men's preseason rankings, but the most credible polls will come later from d3hoops.com. That group is already s
oliciting information from potential top-25 teams for its preseason poll and brings logic and experience to a subjective process.
Polls are a mixed bag for coaches and media relations people. Lofty national rankings bring attention to a program, players and coaching staff and can help in recruiting. That's especially valuable for a university in a Twin Cities sports media market dominated by pro teams and the Gophers. But polls and praise raise expectations, add pressure, give opponents extra incentive, and can cause players to lose focus.
As UST assistant coach John Tauer said, "It's nice to be respected around the country, but preseason polls mean zero."
Surprises happen both ways. Last October, some people wondered if the Tommies would even make the six-team MIAC playoffs after graduating All-Americans Isaac Rosefelt and Bryan Schnettler and All-MIAC forward Mike Keating. But a transfer, some talented recruits and some solid role players came together and surprised everyone with balance, athleticism and chemistry.
Now the Tommies just have to do it all over again.
Fritz didn't get to be a 29-year college head coach -- with 13 MIAC titles, 500 wins and only one losing season -- by blowing smoke. He's an old school guy who embraces hustle and hard work over polls and promises. He immediately sent an e-mail to his players and attached a copy of the Sporting News Top 10 story, with the message: "if you thought we had a big target on our backs before, the bulls-eye just got bigger."
Besides injuries and foul trouble, which can strike at any time, Fritz will remind his players that if they start believing the hype, don't accept their roles or play as a unit, or underestimate any opponents, a promising season could quickly unravel.
The Tommies will open their 2008-09 schedule with a Nov. 21-22 Los Angeles trip to face Pomona-Pitzer (15-12 last season) and NCAA playoff qualifier Occidental (22-6). The Tommies also have home games vs. UW-River Falls (9-16) on Nov. 25 and vs. UW-LaCrosse (11-15) on Dec. 20, and play on Dec. 30 at Division II Concordia-St. Paul (16-12).
St. Thomas starts its conference season at home on Dec. 3 vs. Concordia-Moorhead. The Tommies' 58-8 MIAC record over the last three seasons includes 34 consecutive home wins.
The coaching staff will look for a good November start; seek focus in games before and after final exams in December; stress the need for consistency throu
gh a grueling January; seek a strong February finish; then hope for a late-season peak the Toms can ride into March.
This just in -- more acclaim for Tommie hoops: Our dreadlocked Al McCoy has been named to college basketball's "Best Hair" team. Unfortunately, that story didn't come from a respected magazine like GQ, but is the opinion of G.B. (Gene's Blog).
So get ready for a hair-raising season. Just don't believe all the polls.
PHOTO: Right, Al McCoy
---
Sports information director Gene McGivern is starting his 15th season at
St. Thomas and 21st in the MIAC. He blogs periodically on various topics regarding the Tommies, the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (MIAC) and Division III sports.
If you have comments or questions, e-mail Gene at ejmcgivern@stthomas.edu
Click here for previous blogs by Gene McGivern:
Sept. 27: Toms' 1979 FB team was special:
http://www.tommiesports.com/ftbl/news/GeneBlog11.html
Sept. 23: Rocori graduates help community move forward
http://www.tommiesports.com/news/GeneBlog-10.html
Sept. 22: 6 OT: One for the Record Books:
http://www.tommiesports.com/news/Blog8-9-22.html
Sept. 17: Good Wednesday Tests Await:
http://www.tommiesports.com/news/Blog7.html
Sept. 12: Twins Live and More:
http://www.tommiesports.com/news/Blog6.html
Sept. 6: Pregame Trip Down Memory Lane:
http://www.tommiesports.com/news/Blog5.html
Sept. 2: Newcomers Show Promise:
http://www.tommiesports.com/news/GeneBlog4.html
Aug. 29, 2008/The Games Begin:
http://www.tommiesports.com/news/Blog8-29.html
Aug. 19, 2008/Beloit Mindset List:
http://www.tommiesports.com/news/Blog_Gene2.html
Aug. 16, 2008/The season is coming...:
http://www.tommiesports.com/news/Blog_Gene.html